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Speculator’s Monthly Wrap Up – April 2017

Speculator’s Monthly Wrap Up – April 2017

Definitely not a slow news month this time. Lets get right into this months wrap-up.

There were ISIS related terror attacks in Russia, Syria, Sweden, Australia, Egypt, Paris and Afghanistan and another attempted one in London overnight, many killing over 100 people. The Syrian bus attack particularly brutal where they led children off buses with food, only to blow them up as they gathered (68 children dead).

North Korea started the month firing more ballistic missiles and threatening the USA and Australia with a nuclear attack if provoked, the US then provoked them. The US, China and Russia started moving their war fleets around the world in preparation for war with North Korea, which ended with the USA and North Korea showing off their military power in front of the South Koreans and a failed nuke test by North Korea. The USA then ramped up its provocation with a nuclear test of its own and testing an ICBM as well as moving missile defense systems around South Korea, upsetting China, who then staged their own live fire drills as Japan warned their citizens to prepare for nuclear war. The UK then chimed in saying they would not hesitate to use their nukes in a preemptive strike, and then Russia responded saying that the UK would be “wiped off the face of the Earth” if they messed with the wrong country. (WOW)

There was a chemical attack on civilians in Syria which followed with the USA attacking an airbase in retaliation(?). The USA then dropped the mother of all bombs (MOAB) on Afghanistan as a show of force and the leader of Turkey, president Erdogan was nominated as supreme leader. The month ended with a buildup of US troops at the Syria/Turkey border.

Finally towards the end of the month in the USA, the debt debacle played out with Trumps tax plan and another repeal failure of Obamacare as well as his many flip flop campaign promises. They postponed the government shut down by 1 week because they failed to reach a funding deal, while US GDP came in at a measly 0.7%, the slowest in 3 years. Meanwhile a report also came out that the global debt pile has climbed to $215 trillion USD in 2016, an increase of $70 trillion from a decade ago, a new record high.

With all this happening, world stock markets are hitting records highs, US stocks hit record highs and bitcoin reaches record highs, all while gold is sold off and the miners are getting smashed. Something seems to be seriously off with this outcome, why everything else is soaring and gold is falling in the midst of all out war, US economic uncertainty, global bubbles and record debt levels is very strange. Given the events of this month alone gold should be north of $2000.

On a lighter more humorous note Australia decided to cook the books on their debt by introducing good debt vs bad debt in order to borrow more. You couldn’t make this shit up.

Lets get on to the markets…

The Speculator got bashed around this month, but is not wavering.

AUD Gold Daily – Looking ripe for a breakout

USD Gold 4HR – Looking good

USD Gold Weekly – Need to break that $1300 level and 5 year trend line

AUD/USD Daily – Like a magnet to that 71.40 area?

AUD/USD Weekly – Roll over baby

US Dollar Index – Will it break below that trend line and head back to 92/93 area?

On to the miners

What a disaster for most of the miners. Alot of them were affected by excessive rain in Western Australia increasing their costs and reducing production in the March quarter and were also hit with a GDX/GDXJ re-balance issue. West Gold has lost the #1 position to St Barbara but poor Doray is still leading the pack for the losers. Most of the selling seems to be over with sentiment back in the toilet and most people having already sold. With AUD gold up $55 on the month it doesn’t make much sense for these companies to be sold off, some trading at insane valuations. Will they turn around in May?

Bonus chart of the month – the Nasdaq

Looks like we may get a spike to 7000 before a crash?

Enjoy your weekend.

| The Speculator


  1. Boudicca

    Hey Speculator!

    You ask,”why everything else is soaring and gold is falling in the midst of all out war, US economic uncertainty, global bubbles and record debt levels”?
    The answer is in your third chart, USD GOLD WEEKLY … AND 5 YEAR TREND LINE. This confirmed by USD Gold Monthly chart.
    “The trend is your friend until it bends.”

    • thespeculator01

      We might have a resolution to that trend line by the end of May if we chart the Dec lows into a pennant.


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